Ten years following the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that polarised the country and triggered chaos, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two prominent journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially fraught and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Book Publication Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The duo have analysed the political, financial and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the matter with a roadshow of public talks that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everybody, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose results have not been clarified because then you land with an highly split population where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won don't know precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is approaching, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and unionists play down the possibility, making it uncertain when or if there could be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has masked the lack of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"Many are for or against the concept but the actual thinking which could extend past that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has taken place in scholarly circles but hardly any politicians or activists are willing to participate with even the essentials. For instance, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, none of the commentators advocates unity or the status quo. Both composes two pieces that strive for impartiality in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case against, gathering financial and social data, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Discussions range over national emblems, taxes, health services, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to inform and provoke discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there has not yet occurred a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an recognition of the idea that there could be good arguments on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they support unification but refuse increased taxation or adopting a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government does need to work out what the offer from nationalist groups is other than just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist considers a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it might occur abruptly. "You could have just a mad or a ill-advised or a incompetent official who declares: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified points, he stated. "One side will win in this matter and the other side will eventually lose but each side has has something to acquire from the opposing arguments."
Request for Broader Debate
Westminster needed to join the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish question."
